Dryland ecosystems in the western US are affected by invasive species, climate change, wildfires, and livestock grazing in ways that can be difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. We revisited a site in eastern Washington that had been extensively sampled for biocrusts in 1999, allowing us to focus on effects of climate change, exotic annual grass invasion, and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. Within two decades, exotic annual grass cover increased in all and unburned plots by 16% and 18%, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. We developed a causal model to examine changes between 1999 and 2020 that suggested decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Surprisingly, wildfires did not appear to influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Biocrust lichen and bryophyte communities were composed of different species that were less abundant and diverse in areas dominated by exotic annual grass. We observed a reduction in cyanolichens that  may be associated with warming nights and less moisture availability. Our study represents an unusual opportunity to examine the effects of wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. In this context, the minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that some apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites are due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance, such as rodent burrowing and off-road vehicle use.