Oral Paper

         Tropical Biology

Comparing phenological shifts in tropical wet and dry habitats using herbarium specimens

Presenting Author
Skylar Graves
Description
The tropics contain over three quarters of the world’s biodiversity and shifts in tropical ecosystems can have ripple effects that can be felt throughout the entire world. Both wet and dry tropical habitats are threatened by climate change, however dry climates are at greater risk in many cases. A global investigation of phenological shifts in tropical flowering plants has never before been conducted. The nuances and complexities of flowering timing in the tropics have stymied researchers in the past. This relative lack of study to have emphasized tropical biomes is not trivial. Studies that document shifts in life events provide crucial evidence towards understanding the effects of global climate change on ecosystems. Such effects are furthermore used in predictive models to prepare for the future of these communities. Without a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of human activities, there will remain a fatal gap in our understanding of climate change, especially as it pertains to some of the most vast, biodiverse forests remaining on Earth. 20 representative locations were chosen in a pairwise fashion, comparing a wet and dry habitat in each region of the tropics. I used data from 219,618 digitized herbarium specimens, containing flowering structures, representing over 50,000 taxa, spanning 270 years to discern mean flowering times. A linear regression analysis was used to analyze a shift in the timing and frequency of the flowering events. Preliminary analyses support the prediction that there is a more drastic shift in flowering time in dry habitats as compared to their wet counterparts for multiple regions. Future projects will work to expand the parameters defining wet and dry habitats, as opposed to the binary categorization currently being used.