Oral Paper

         Ecology

Population impacts of rarity under native grazers and changing climate

Presenting Author
Sarah Herzog
Description
Understanding if and how species can persist in a changing climate and landscape is critical to our ability to conserve and manage ecosystems over the long-term. Rare species are at higher risk of extinction overall; however, species that are rare in different ways (e.g., small range vs. low-density populations) might respond quite differently to environmental drivers such as climate change, herbivores, or land use. For example, species with small ranges might be more responsive to climate (if climate is constraining their range), or herbivores might strongly impact habitat specialists (if herbivores utilize specialists’ habitat). Here I use long-term vegetation cover and climate monitoring data from a research site (Konza Prairie) in the tallgrass prairies of the Great Plains to create density structured population models for 17 species differing in rarity type. I test how the response of species to different grazing regimes (bison presence vs. absence) and weather conditions (annual variability in weather) varies across rarity types. I find rare species can differ dramatically in weather and bison responses, suggesting that they may also differ in their response to changing climate and native grazer reintroductions. Understanding how species differing in rarity type respond to environmental drivers is critical for management considerations for long-term species persistence.