Poster

         Systematics

Patterns in northward movements of southern plant species in New Jersey

Presenting Author
Fitzwilliam Dettmer
Description
New Jersey (USA) on the northeastern coast of North America is a notably ecologically and species diverse state, containing four different physiographic provinces, five level III ecoregions, and the only occurrence of one level IV ecoregion—84b, the Pine Barrens—in the United States. The southern half of New Jersey consists of the Coastal Plain physiographic province and is remarkably different from the northern half, which also was glaciated during the last glacial maximum (LGM) while the Coastal Plain was not. Despite constituting only 0.26% of the land area of the U.S., New Jersey contains 13% of the floral species found in the country. Of New Jersey’s more than 2100 native vascular plant species, 356 (17%) are considered endangered by the state. New Jersey is also the fastest-warming US state, having had the largest increase in its average annual temperature over the last century. Species distributions are expected to shift towards higher latitudes as the climate warms, but there have been no studies conducted on New Jersey flora to ascertain whether species ranges are shifting as expected. This study is a first investigation into whether flowering plant species that have historically occurred exclusively in the southern half of New Jersey have moved north within the last 40 years. We develop a simple, non-projecting technique for determining patterns of movement utilizing existing occurrence data from herbarium collections and iNaturalist. Of the species that were only occurring in the Coastal Plain physiographic province as of 1983 (as per Mary Y. Hough’s New Jersey Wild Plants), we selected the 20 species with the most herbarium and iNaturalist occurrence data. Each species was categorized as either being restricted to the Pine Barrens area or to occur throughout the Coastal Plain. We geolocated and mapped to municipality level all specimens and observations with locality information and a year of observation/collection, and rasterized and sorted by the earliest year each species was observed across the state and by 10-year periods after 1983. For each species and both range categories, the ratios of cells where the first occurrence was before versus after 1983 above and below the northern boundary of the Coastal Plain were compared using the Fisher exact probability test in R. Our results found that no southern species that were noted to be present primarily within the Pine Barrens has been found north of the Coastal Plain after 1983. In contrast, just under half of the southern species noted to occur outside of the Pine Barrens or throughout the Coastal Plain were found to occur north of the Coastal Plain after 1983 at rates that were significantly greater than their occurrence after 1983 in the Coastal Plain (p-values < 0.05). In conclusion, certain species are moving north, but not those restricted to the Pine Barrens habitat.  We include a discussion of potential data bias caused by lack of or uneven collections efforts, not reporting obscure plants in iNaturalist, and other human behavioral effects.