Anthropogenic land use changes in Florida have eliminated more than half of the state’s wetlands over the last 2 centuries, and additional losses are anticipated as a consequence of climate change, sea level rise, and continuing development activities that will accommodate a rapidly growing human population. These issues spell danger for Florida’s biodiversity and ecosystem services, and data are needed to inform future conservation priorities and. Guzmania monostachia (Bromeliaceae) is an endangered epiphyte native to freshwater forested wetlands within South Florida. We modeled the projected distribution of this species in response to changing climate and sea level conditions. We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) under the current-day conditions using georeferenced occurrence points and projected them into the past and future under different climate and sea-level rise scenarios. Our future climate-based ENMs predicted small losses in suitable habitat for G. monostachia in South Florida, coupled with range expansions into more northern areas due to the warmer climate. In contrast, when sea-level rise conditions were included, our models predicted a considerable, although non-detrimental, loss of suitable habitat. These predictions suggest that G. monostchia will not be driven to extinction in Florida by climate change and sea-level rise alone. Rather, these results when combined with land use data suggest that human activity is and will continue to be the largest threat to G. monostachia in Florida. Conservation efforts should focus on preserving existing habitats that will remain above sea level in the coming decades, and also should explore possibilities for assisted migration northward.