Restoration theory suggests that using genetically- and species-rich seed mixes are necessary to ensure the long-term evolutionary potential of restored communities under global change. However, identifying suitable species and populations to source seeds for restoration is increasingly challenging given the rapid pace of climate change. Thus, new decision-making tools are required that integrate our understanding of species’ contemporary and future niches into species and seed-sourcing decisions. In this study, we use ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM) for single species and functional groups within a diverse plant community to forecast community response to global change. In addition, we model connectedness across fragmented landscapes to identify species-rich regions suitability needed to preserve communities in response to change. We tested these approaches using plant communities in North American grasslands, which are experiencing continued loss of native habitat and require extensive restoration efforts. Using an eSDM approach, we modeled the distribution of 26 different grassland species that span four functional groups and are commonly for restoration in the North American Great Plains. We modeled species and functional groups in Biomod2 using contemporary environmental conditions and future (2050) climate projections. Across the community of grassland species, the environmental variables that contributed the most to grassland species’ contemporary niche were ‘growing degree days as heat units’, ‘soil characteristics’, and ‘cultivated and managed vegetation’. Interestingly, across all species, the factor that had the greatest predictive probability of species’ presence was ‘maximum temperature of the warmest month’ suggesting the grassland species’ community-associated ecosystem functions are associated with warmer, drier environments. While many regions exhibited stability in the predicted suitable distribution given contemporary and future conditions, the eSDM model predicted a northward expansion for many species into Canada. The greatest increase in predicted suitability was for the grass species, Boutleloua curtipendula (ca. 8%) while forbs such as Geum trifolium, were predicted to lose approximately 7% of suitable habitat across the western United States under the future (2050) climatic scenarios. This suggests the nuanced predictions associated with individual species may reshape the grassland community as a whole with expansion and loss of suitable habitat across North America. Our research has identified key environmental factors that underlie the suitability of grassland communities under current and future conditions. Based on the current climate projections, the suitable climate for grassland communities may shift northward. This emphasizes the need to maintain connectivity across regions that exhibit hotspots of species suitability. The eSDM provides an invaluable tool needed to guide decision-making regarding grassland restoration and conservation efforts. Specifically, it suggests that restoration efforts should prioritize the selection of climate-resilient seed source populations and maintain connectivity to facilitate niche-tracking in response to climate change.