Poster

         Conservation Biology

Can Lake Superior Arctic Relicts Survive the Anthropocene? Population Viability Analysis for Three Species Across Three Years

Presenting Author
Ryan Carlson
Description
In North America, relict arctic plant populations from the last glacial maximum persist in disjunct locations south of their normal range. These fringe populations may be particularly threatened by stressors associated with climate change like increased temperature and decreased water availability. In Minnesota, USA, several arctic relicts of conservation concern are confined to the rocky coast immediately adjacent Lake Superior, where they comprise an ‘arctic-alpine’ community in restricted microclimates that provide suitable habitats for their survival. We monitored populations of the arctic relicts Primula mistassinica, Pinguicula vulgaris, and Euphrasia hudsoniana along the shoreline for three growing seasons between 2020 and 2022 to track growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals. Using these factors, Population Viability Analysis models were created for each species to project population growth or decline at each site. Well below average spring and summer precipitation in 2021 provided an opportunity to study how arctic relict populations react to and recover from droughts, and how they may fare under future climate with increasing intensity of weather events. Declines in reproduction and survival during and following the drought were site specific for each species and not latitude dependent. Variability of these factors between sites, species, and years reinforces the important role that microclimates play in the health and future viability of these plant populations.